Taking the Measure of Labor Department Surveys - 2004
Authors:
Management Recruiters International, Inc.
Tim Kane, Ph.D.
Aaron Smith, Ph.D.
Management Recruiters International (MRINetwork), the largest professional staffing institution
in the world, has become concerned that increased hiring demand observed by
its affiliates is not correlating with the measure of the total U.S. employment numbers
released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Consequently, in an effort to
educate its clients on how the numbers are calculated, MRINetwork commissioned this
study to explore the mechanics of the BLS monthly Employment Situation report.
There are two surveys that BLS uses to generate the monthly report, the household
survey and the payroll survey. With the survey findings now seen as influencing
everything from the broader stock market to the hiring practices of major businesses
to the presidential race, the two BLS surveys are considered the preeminent yardsticks
for calculating hiring practices on a national scale. This report contrasts
positive official labor statistics with the negative payroll estimate of total employment,
and identifies new technical problems with its methodology. The large sample
size of the payroll survey has overshadowed sample quality issues.
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